THE GURLEY GATES PARLAY COOKER
Cook smarter touchdown parlays from model probability, verified Winamax prices, matchup, role, weather and value.
Top touchdown picks
Fast view: the decision-useful numbers first.
| # | Player | Matchup | TD Chance | Winamax | Fair | Edge | Why |
|---|
Best TD matchups
See which games and defenses create the strongest touchdown environments this week.
Find any player fast
Parlay Cooker
Choose 4–8 legs and let the app build a research combo from verified Winamax prices + model TD probability.
Verified ingredients
—Probability Engine
Time-split validation, xTD opportunity quality, position-aware calibration and team scoring-budget reconciliation behind every TD probability.
Historical calibration
When the model says X%, how often did a touchdown actually occur in the untouched historical holdout?
What the model sees
Rushes and targets are weighted by scoring context. Later seasons are scored only from earlier-season outcome data.
Player TD lambdas are reconciled when a team collectively implies more touchdowns than its pregame scoring environment supports.
The statistical model and xTD/role prior are blended; disagreement and unstable recent role lower confidence.
Pregame TD allowance by position, implied points, home/away and weather all remain market-independent inputs.